Urbandale, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

680
FXUS63 KDMX 081715
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1215 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Not as cool today, warmer on Tuesday, then notably warmer by
  next weekend.

- Rain chances (20-40%) at times from late Tuesday night through
  Thursday. A few thunderstorms possible, but severe weather
  not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

It is currently clear, cool, and quiet across the region. Winds
are light and variable, skies are clear, and temperatures have
fallen into the 20s over most of Iowa as a surface ridge
dominates the area. However, changes are on the way as the ridge
moves quickly away to the east today, allowing for a return of
modest south southeasterly surface flow ahead of a broad low
pressure area developing across the High Plains. As this low
pressure approaches and moves across southern Iowa and northern
Missouri late tonight and Wednesday morning, it will promote
steady moistening of the column and broad forcing for ascent,
resulting in increasing cloud cover and some scattered showers
at times. As a 500 mb shortwave trough moves over Iowa on
Wednesday it will phase with this system, increasing the lift
and resulting in somewhat more widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms, however it appears this will mainly occur over
eastern Iowa and Illinois/Wisconsin, so our POPs remain in the
20-30% range with light amounts and little to no thunder
expected. A second 500 mb impulse quick on the heels of the
first will help carve out a deeper mid-level trough over the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions by Thursday, supporting
more 20-30% POPs for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
However, throughout the Tuesday night-Thursday timeframe
instability will be quite limited and no severe weather is
anticipated - only spotty light rainfall and a few rumbles of
thunder.

As for temperatures, today will be somewhat more mild than
Monday as south southeasterly low-level flow returns, then
Wednesday will be warmer yet with highs climbing into the 60s in
most areas. On Thursday as the aforementioned trough moves over
and brings more cloud cover along with weak cold air advection
temperatures will be suppressed a bit but still reach the 50s to
lower 60s. By Friday a large thermal ridge will have built over
the Rockies and over the northern High Plains, which will then
slide eastward over Iowa this weekend. Initially, on Friday
surface winds will remain light within a retreating high
pressure ridge keeping temperatures in check, however good
sunshine/insolation should still push temperatures up to around
60 for highs. After that, strengthening warm air advection
associated with the thermal ridge as well as increasing
southerly breezes and low-level mixing will promote more
significant warming, with highs in the upper 60s Saturday and
70s Sunday making for glorious spring weather for most outdoor
interests, though the warming southerly winds will be gusty.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period with increasing upper
level clouds this afternoon and evening. Winds remain primarily
out of the south through the period, but willflip to more
westerly then northerly tomorrow morning. A few showers are
possible overnight, but confidence is low in these impacting any
given site at this time. That said, showers could be
accompanied by breezy winds.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lee
AVIATION...Dodson